Trump Voters for Zohran Mamdani and a Emerging Progressive Alliance: The Biggest Surprises from NYC’s Election

Only 48 hours prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a bold electoral prediction – not just who would win overall, and block by block. Lange, a political analyst born and raised in New York City, devoted more than ten years in left-leaning activism and has become a kind of local celebrity recently for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He published his highly detailed prediction map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate was victorious while failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, for instance, the split between the “commie corridor”, stretching from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, certain media outlets and financial newspapers outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and the majority of electors leaned toward Cuomo, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Trends and Unexpected Results

How was your election night?

I had to do that because they were adding around 200,000 votes into the tally frequently! I felt somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by 12 points, but there were large groups of ballots added later and the advantage dropped from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world in which yesterday went somewhat badly for him, where the opponent was going to end up basically increasing his support from the earlier contest. However Mamdani gained half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he won. He campaigned and massively expanded his base from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect get those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that progressives long aimed for: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the primary. Additionally he boosted his base of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He created the alliance that progressives long aimed for: diverse, youthful, renters and residents struggling with costs

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, confined to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Islamic voters. Electors in ethnic enclaves that supported Trump previously backed the progressive now. But it’s not that he was gaining white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Effects

A major development of the night was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Turnout was much greater than I had expected. I thought it could exceed 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. There was a decent anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but his supporters was also motivated, and that sufficed to win.

You forecasted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Currently it appears he’s favored to get over 50%. He has 50.4% but there’s still probably 200K ballots uncounted as of Wednesday morning. Thus I don’t think certain, but I think it’s likely, and I wish he does so then no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His support plummeted.

He lost any district in any area. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an highly conservative area. That really surprised me. The independent held very white areas, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and plus gained many conservatives on Staten Island with a strong turnout. I think there was significant tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened prior to Trump endorsed for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide unless Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – did backing for the candidate overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view there was a little dilution of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the property owners and residents all went for Cuomo. So there existed a little resistance. But overall, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the vote there was coverage on if Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he did?

There are areas with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as specific locales – where he performed strongly. However in the affluent districts such as the Manhattan area, his position on Israel was influential in those places. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they favored Cuomo. And also, there are Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, who were pretty staunchly Cuomo. So I don’t know if there were crazy narrative-busters on this one, but Mamdani retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the another locale by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what New York means politically? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that key figures from progressives come from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that there will be additional examples – people will emerge from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

But I believe that every city in the US can have similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in the nation – since youth reside there, tenancy is common and they are places where individuals struggle by the inequalities we face.