From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro

Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, one thing is clear – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation marked its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and abduct its leader – mere days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other elements of the headless administration are even more hardline.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: consider the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Disregard the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

Few believe the justification that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is propelled by the allure of petroleum resources as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the desire for glory as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode emphasizes the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.

Barely 12 months into his four-year term. World leaders may regret it if they remain quiet at this juncture, considering the potential next target.